The Dunning-Kruger Effect

People regularly draw on the fact that they were more confident as a child than an adult. In their youth people often are fearless, confident, and have an aura of 'I know everything'. This real-life example can be aligned to the ideology behind the 'Dunning-Kruger Effect' - a theory developed by David Dunning and Justin Kruger in 1999. This article will introduce the theory and present its implications in the workplace.

An Introduction to The Dunning-Kruger Effect

First things first, let's get a visualisation in relation to the model:

So what is the model telling us? Well, it argues that employees that have very little competence tend to be extremely confident in themselves. They believe that they are amazing at their job, that they have every necessary skillset, and that everything they do is correct. Of course, this is not true. As expected, they are the least competent employees.

Interestingly, those who have average competence tend to have the least confidence. Whereas, experts have an increased level of confidence. The latter two make sense to a degree - but why do those who essentially have little to no idea regarding what they are doing have such high confidence levels? Here's why:

Inability to Recognise Lack of Skills/Mistakes

The two authors argue that people who are of low competence in their role tend to have an inability to recognise their own mistakes and lack of skills. These individuals fail to identify true skill within others or the role, and struggle to realise what expertise looks like. An example of this would be a new employee that thinks they know everything about their new role and are impossible to give advice to or teach. They would typically defend their errors and be defensive over their work.

Struggle to Perform Honest Self-Analysis

Minimally competent but highly confident people tend to have an inability to reflect on themselves objectively. Instead, they overestimate their own skills and believe in their own subjective views. This incapacity results their ego being inflated - ultimately being a cause of their own overconfidence.

Minimal Knowledge Leads to Overconfidence

It is commonly the case that when an individual has low competence in a role but gains a small amount of knowledge that their confidence levels shoots up. They believe they can and have mastered their role within a tiny amount of time.

However, we are all susceptible to this phenomenon. We all sometimes overestimate and underestimate ourselves in relation to our abilities. The key is the identify those who are not estimating their own confidence levels in relation to their true competence.

Here at Flourish, we find we tend to deal with more people underestimating their abilities. If you feel like you are good at what you do, the chances are that in fact you are great at it. You just lack the confidence. To address that, get in touch. We can help you find the confidence levels you deserve!

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